The January 2018 quarterly report for the Atlas 14 project is available on the NOAA / NWS website. See these prior posts to learn more about how Atlas 14 is an updated statistical analysis of rainfall records to adjust our estimate of rainfall depths and likelihoods.
Schedule Change
The progress report indicates the following new schedule:
- January 2018: Completion of peer review. [No change]
- April 2018: Revise statistical data. [Was February 2018]
- July 2018: Documentation and additional calculations. [Was March 2018]
- October 2018: Web publication of final Atlas 14 data. [Was May 2018]
- December 2018: Web publication of documentation. [Was June 2018]
Climate Change
The January 2018 report also summarizes the Atlas 14 work regarding how climate change may change rainfall depths in the future. The report uses the term “non-stationary climate” when referring to climate change. The main tasks include:
- Selection of non-stationary statistical analysis to determine future rainfall [underway];
- Testing the feasibility of incorporating future climate projections into precipitation studies [complete by March 2018];
- Implementation of selected non-stationary method(s) using historical and future precipitation data on a designated project area [not yet scheduled];
- Assessing the added value of new precipitation frequency estimates
with respect to traditional NOAA Atlas 14 estimates and recommending an approach for national implementation [not yet scheduled].